Bitcoin Will Crash - Lessons From A Brazilian Exotic Dancer.
The melody of bubbles and where I'm putting my money now.
Welcome to the 810 new Contrarians who joined last week. You big cranium endowed humans… if you aren’t subscribed here, do it.
Or you know, share it and get gifts from yours truly, via our ambassador program (free swag).
Bubbles Have A Sound to Them
Have you ever been the boy who cried wolf?
When you warn of impending problems more than once, you ain’t exactly the town favorite. Being outside of the consensus rarely feels good. We humans are horrified at the idea of truly being “different.” Although some of us may dye our hair, pierce all the things, say we identify as a purple unicorn, or wear red hats and call people snowflakes, the truth is we all just want to be accepted. Why? Well if you weren’t accepted back in the good old caveman days you were cast out and died. If you dabbled in herbs and felt a bit atheist in the colonial days you were burned at the stake. And today - if you say no to HODL, oh baby.
Thus it’s with great reticence (ok that’s a lie we all know I love pushing buttons) that I say this is JUST MY OPINION AND NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE:
Bitcoin will correct in the short term (next 3-6 months)
Retail investors who buy-in at the highs and sell when it tumbles will lose hundreds of millions of dollars collectively as they try to market time
Long term the asset class will be worth more in 2-5-10 years than it is now by a multiplier effect. Aka a lot.
How do I know? I’m a student of history. Cycles and bubbles have a melody. It’s like hearing rap music far off in the distance, you can’t quite make out the lyrics but you know the artist, you’ve heard it before. All it takes is hearing that small echo.
Here’s the forensic evidence I have for you on the status of the bitcoin bubble that is absolutely beyond any repute, and 1000% verifiable.
Step 1: Reference Your Instagram Stories/Twitter
Step 2: Look at How Many Non-Financial/Non-Experts Are Posting about Bitcoin Over the Past Week
Step 3: Count How Many People Are Showing Their Account Balances There (eek)
Sarcasm aside, I believe Bitcoin won’t stay at $22-23k in value for the short term. I think it will correct, and almost every expert I’ve talked to (including 10 people who all have $1M to $10’s of Millions in it, they expect something similar).
On less of a cheeky note:
We’re looking at Google Trends where you can type in any word and see its search volume on Google. Peak popularity is 100. Aka - the masses are all searching.
Oh, that would be at a 98.
That’s a 100 out of 100 my friends.
The last time I saw bitcoin this frothy was during the last uptick, and I sold out of my very small position (like $25k all in) on December 16, 2017.
The bitcoin market then peaked on December 20, 2017 (4 days later) losing value from $16,925 to the low of $3,200ish.
Do you want to know my brilliant method for predicting?
Was it quantitative analysis? Was it technicals? Was it volume?
No, it was a Brazilian stripper. Yup. Oh man, this is about to get very un-politically correct.
Let me tell you a story first. Have you ever heard about how JFK Sr. predicted the 1929 stock market crash? The saying goes, “No one rings the bell when you reach the top.” In fact, it’s usually quite the opposite.
In 1929, JFK’s father Joseph Kennedy Sr. was a wealthy man, the stock market and life in general was treating him pretty well. Of course it was, you could buy any stock and it would do one thing… go up.
After having made quite a big chunk in the market throughout the roaring 1920’s Mr. Kennedy needed to get his shoes shined. Sitting in chair (which always creeps me out a bit given it’s too throne like nature), Mr. Kennedy listened with growing alarm as the shoeshine boy gave him several tips on which stocks to own.
Kennedy went back to his office and immediately sold all his stocks. Then he took it one step further. He shorted the market aggressively and THUS the sterling clean Kennedy fortune was made during the epic stock market crash that followed.
That’s why I’ve never loved speculative assets.
I don’t like for someone to have to lose for me to win.
I’ve never ever ever shorted any market for that exact reason. Although if they let me short some politicians I’m game.
My canary in the coal mine was a Brazilian exotic dancer in Rio De Janiero. Hold please: she showed a *friend* a picture of her car with a license plate on it that said one word, Bitcoin. He told me the story and I sold the next day.
Am I any good at predicting things:
Dec 2018 - I said the Cannabis market was due for a massive correction in front of 25,000 people at a Cannabis conference (they were ahem, thrilled).
But three months later in March of 2019, this happened.
Oct 2019 - I said the general stock market was going up on national TV vs a permabear… I think we know who won that game.
I’ve certainly had my fair share of wrong calls. But the melody, you can often hear it, if you’re willing to listen.
THE LITTLE GUYS ALWAYS LOSE MOST
AND THE TRUTH IS - most of the institutional players, they know this. They just don’t share it with you! With us. The common people. It’s why the wealthy keep getting richer, and the “normies” get killed during asset bubbles. The wealthy are quiet, and the get-rich-quickers are loud. But they don’t last.
I don’t want that for you.
WHAT DO WE DO NOW?
All this said, Long Term I Am A CryptoCurrency Buyer:
Short term I am not.
How am I playing this market? How might you think about it?
Rule #1: Boring advice is often the best advice. The exciting stuff gets you amped and loses you money.
Don’t over allocate. The way you avoid buying high and then panic selling is by never putting in so much money you can’t afford to lose it.
Buy into any long term uncorrelated asset on the dips. And please, whatever you do, don’t buy in at the highs and sell at the lows. Thanks, Codie, that’s brilliantly obvious. What I mean is don’t panic sell.
Coinbase has an auto-invest feature. Dollar-cost average in. That means small amounts consistently. I do this across real estate, stocks, crypto, alternatives, etc. You could put something in on a weekly or monthly buy schedule so you take out the human emotion element.
Add bitcoin and crypto purchasing options to your website. Maybe hold a majority of the money that comes in this way. It’s like dollar-cost averaging for bitcoin.
Wealth accumulation is a LONG game. Don’t get caught up in the short term noise.
Oh, &^%$, does that mean I actually just told you to HODL. Maybe. If you bought at the high in 2017 and held this whole time, you’d still be up. If you sold. Well…
The truth is you need to be an adult and know your own risk profile.
Meaning - don’t invest in something if you can’t afford to lose it all. And finally, it’s old but damn is it true, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
ASK ME ANY QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS - WILL ANSWER.
Question everything and diversify your assets just like your income streams,
New YouTube Who Dis?
Starting to turn all of these posts into vids on the interwebs. Wanna join? Subscribe here.
Just wait for the next video from Unconventional Acquisitions on breaking down a small business to buy, so good!
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. This article is presented for informational purposes only, is an opinion, and is not intended to recommend any investment, and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any current or future investment vehicle managed or sponsored by Entourage Effect Capital, LLC, Codie Ventures LLC or its affiliates. Any such solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest will be made by a definitive private placement memorandum or other offering document.